Well, the linemakers are off this weekend, which means yours truly is puttin the cash on the table. I feel pretty good about these picks. I am 80% confident that I’ll win at least 2 of these games. Also, the games are Saturday! So you have a chance to Parlay if you win tomorrow…
Game 1: Ride the lightning
NE (-3) at NJ
I said I’d ride Billy Belichek all the way to the playoffs, and what better opportunity to bet on the Pats than this week in their matchup with the hapless Jets. The Pats are only giving away 3 here, but all the Jets have got is Curtis Martin, and the Pats have effectively stopped the run all year. They’re also playing for homefield advantage in the playoffs, whereas the Jets have nothing to gain from this game. On the negative side, Pennington was one of the few QBs to figure out Belichek’s defensive scheme last year, and punished the Pats in a big game. But Chad P doesn’t have the horses this year. Pats win by at least a TD.
Game 2: Special teams and turf
KC (-3) at Minn
This game should be a high scoring shootout… two very weak defenses against high powered offense. I think these teams are more or less evenly matched, except that KC’s special teams are far better than Minn (Vermeil was the first NFL special teams coach ever!) and I think Vermeil is a much better coach than Tice. Look for Dante Hall to have a couple big returns on the turf. Chiefs specials make the difference in this game, even though Moss will have a huge game.
Game 3: Fade the Browns
Baltimore (-3) at Cleveland
Baltimore needs this game, and Billick has been stressing that the Ravens need to finish strong. Cleveland is a horrible team, and has nothing to gain from this game. I will bet against Couch/Holcombe any day. Ray Lewis is the best defensive player in the league, and probably deserves MVP this year. Jamal Lewis went for almost 300 early in the season against the Brownies… that won’t happen, but he’ll get plenty of yards rolling over the horrible Cleveland front 7.
INJURY BETS
There are two games that currently aren’t showing a line–
1. Denver at Indy
If Portis plays and the spread is less than 7, Indy is money here. With a sprained knee and ankle, Portis will lose his most valuable skill– explosiveness. The Broncs have no offense without Portis, and Indy should demolish them.
2. Tenn at Houston
Tennessee’s starting QB for this game is Jason Gesser, an undrafted free agent from Washington State. QB is mostly mental, and the kid might be alright, but the odds are against him.
Boy Genius drops some knowledge in his Lions report card. The guy should be a scout. BG, Detroit -10 at Carolina? I think the under (37) could be a decent bet in this game…
Sweat the action!
I gotta give props to the poker penguin… I think we may be long lost brothers… he’s working on a novel, has bad knees (I’ve had 2 ACL surgeries), and blogs profusely. Check out this gem from the Penguin:
“It was a dark and stormy night at the Last Chance Saloon. The No Limit Holdem game had been going on for a while now and everyone was getting fed up with the angle shooting guy with the big moustache. So, when another towel headed guy put a monster of a bad beat on the simple looking cowboy, trouble was in the air.
Sure enough, a couple hands later, the cowboy makes a decent sized raise to try to steal Saddam’s blinds. Saddam hated this, so he started talking about how he had rockets in the hole and was going to take great pleasure in taking the cowboy down a peg or two.
Well, sure enough Saddam came right back at the cowboy with an allin re-raise. Problem was, all he had was 72o and the cowboy knew this. After Saddam takes a beating, he slopes off to a 1-2 game threatening to build his stack up and have another shot at the cowboy. He also threw in some choice words about the cowboy’s daddy.
“Ain’t nobody insults ma Pa” the cowboy drawled. Dammed if he and his pardner English Tony didn’t leave the game too and chase him right down to that 1-2 game. But Saddam, he turned into a total calling station. Wouldn’t fold anything, wouldn’t raise anything, just sat there behind his dwindling pile of chips calling away. Sure enough, his chips eventually disappeared.
The moral of that story folks is that if you’re going to piss off a cowboy who has a crapload of chips, and the only rockets in the game, you better pray.”